Following the Conservative’s General Election win, Treasury figures warning that a hard BREXIT could cost up to £66bn are just the tip of the iceberg, says Professor Nada Kakabadse, Head of Marketing and Reputation at Henley Business School.
“The Government is still in denial of economic reality,” she continues. “The UK economy is currently sitting on around 60 per cent of debt. Only 8% of EU exports go to UK, while around 46% go to the European Union.
“In addition, there are legal EU realities and WTO rules to take account of. We have no choice but to trade with Europe, so pushing for demands on the free movement of goods, services and capital will be met with a very simple EU response – ‘No!’
“Similarly, there is zero chance of a free trade agreement between the UK and America, India or China. At the moment, the only potential agreement that is open to the UK is with Australia.”
Professor Kakabadse’s comments come at a point where Government figures suggest the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) could fall by as much as 9.5 per cent if it leaves the EU and reverts to World Trade Organisation rules.
The impact of such a slump would be devastating according to a leaked draft cabinet committee paper, based on a study published by George Osborne in April during the Referendum campaign.
Despite the vilification it received then, the Treasury says it still stands by the figures.
Professor Kakabadse continues: “David Davis has presented a series of BREXIT stories, which have hardened the EU’s opposition to the UK’s increasingly desperate position.
“Reports out of Westminster are highlighting unprecedented scenes. A whole series of press articles raging about ‘Europe being difficult and wanting to create its own army’ are coming directly from certain parts of the cabinet.
“Championing an economy based on micro-businesses is the next step to poverty – they keep people working but don’t create wealth. Ultimately the only way to generate money is through trade.
“This has nothing to do with the UK and Europe’s future, and everything to do with keeping the Conservative party together.”